I'm writing this just few hours before the day 3 of Boxing Test. Sri Lanka have bundled out for 156 and currently Australia are leading 284 runs. By looking at this, most probably the result will be an appaling one for Sri Lanka and match might end on day 3 itself. Sri Lanka's hope for a Test win in Australia is fading day by day. This is Sri Lanka's first ever boxing day test in Australia after 1995. Even Sri Lanka's most senior players Sangakkara and Mahela Jayawardene have complained that they have never got an opportunity to play a Test match at MCG in their 12-15 years long careers. But if this is Sri Lanka going to perform when they got the opportunity, can they expect another chance before another 17 years ? Mind you, some people considering this batting line up as Sri Lanka's 'golden generation'. However still there is some hope for a test win at SCG.
What is Sri Lanka's future from here ? Mahela has stepped down from captaincy and most probably Angelo Mathews will be the new captain. Also we have to consider that Sri Lanka have an aging batting order. Dilshan, Samaraweera, Mahela and Sangakkara all 4 in their 35-36. It is inevitable that Sri Lanka have to groom few youngsters for a smooth transition. But at the same time you can't lose your best players. As I have heard, Dilshan and Samaraweera are already talking about their retirements plans.
Let's see a statistical analysis of which 2 should be the ones to sacrifice for the future. Below table shows overall stats of Sri Lankan batsmen in last 2 years. According to this, past 2 years has been a hard time for Sri Lankans. Only Sangakkara and Mathews have respectable averages. Samaraweera and Dilshan having 'OK' averages. Mahela Jayawardene is averaging about 30, which is unacceptable for a player of his calibre.
This 2nd table shows performances of Sri Lankan batsmen away from home in last 2 years. Thilan Samaraweera who averages over 50 has been Sri Lanka's best batsman away from home in recent years. Then there is Sangakkara who averages almost 48. Surprisingly Prasanna Jayawardene has been Sri Lanka's 3rd best batsman in abroad in past 2 years. He averages 46.77. Dilshan averages 39. And more surprisingly Mahela Jayawardene is averaging rubbishy 17.66, he couldn't score even a single 50 in those 21 innings. Even Rangana Herath has averaged more than he.
Third table shows their records in last 2 years outside Asia. Nothing different in Samaraweera's record. He has been the best batsman. And then Dilshan with a 47+ average. Sangakkara has struggled a bit. Then once again there is Mahela Jayawardene with a pathetic record.
By looking at all these statistics, Mahela Jayawardene has been the under performing batsman in recent years. Why does his away record is so miserable in recent past ? Is it a temporary loss of form ? Let's find it out.
Below table shows all the Sri Lankan players record away from home throughout their careers. Clearly you can see who are the best Sri Lankan players. To be categorized as 'great' , a batsman should be able to perform in most conditions. Sangakkara averages 49.66, if you compare it with other world class players, even Brian Lara (47.80) , Inzamam-ul-Haq (46.98) , Ricky Ponting (46.40) , Javed Miandad (45.80) are also behind him. Samaraweera also have a very good average of 45.60. But where is Mahela Jayawardene ? He is there with a very average average. If you compare Mahela's record with players from other counties (who played at least 19 away matches), he is the 126th player in the list. And he is there with very average Test batsmen like Shaun Pollock (36.45), MS Dhoni (33.48) and Scott Styris (33.22).
This final table shows all the Sri Lanka players record outside Asia (excluding Zimbabwe). An Asian Test cricketer's real challenge is performing outside Asia. As we can see in the table, many batsmen have decreased their averages. Once again Sangakkara is proving why he is the best batsman from Sri Lanka. And again ! Samaraweera and Dilshan are above Mahela Jayawardene.
After looking at table 1, 2 and 3 you may think that Mahela Jayawardene's recnt poor record away from home is due to a loss of form. But table 4 & 5 proves he had that problem throughout his 15 years career. SERIOUSLY ! A pathetic Away record for 15 years of his Test career. It's just getting worse with his age.
It is no doubt that Mahela Jayawardene is an elegant and utterly classy batsman and it is treat to watch him batting. Also without a doubt he is the most talented player Sri Lanka has produced in recent decades. But sadly elegance or talent doesn't make runs itself. He has to apply that to make runs, especially outside home conditions.
But at the moment Sri Lankan cricket is in a crucial junction and have to make some tough calls for the future. Few youngsters have to bring in at the expense of 2 seniors. By looking at statistics, those two seniors should be TM Dilshan and Mahela Jayawardene. I know now many of you must be mad at me. But statistics don't lie. Samaraweera has been a better Test players than Mahela. And definitely he is not the one to retire at this stage. Now don't show up Mahela's ODI or T20 statistics to justify his place in the Test team. I'm just talking about Test cricket. I never mentioned Mahela should retire from ODIs or T20Is.
With scraping West Indies and South Africa Test matches, most probably Sri Lanka will play only with Bangladesh and Zimbabwe in the year 2013. In these matches Sri Lanka should include more youngsters in the Test team other than providing opportunity for under performing stars to boost their averages.
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